What the numbers say
Next match: Mauritania, 9 November 2026 – 17 November 2026 (date to be confirmed), away.
Expected outcome
Win 50 % · Draw 27 % · Defeat 23 %
- Expected points
- 1.76
- Elo
- 1,646 against 1,452
- Head to head since 1960
- 10 matches · 6W 3D 1L · 11-5
- In matches this lopsided
- 244 matches · 103W 68D 73L
- Goals per match in those matches
- 1.32 scored · 1.09 conceded
A rating model, nothing more: it knows nothing about injuries, suspensions, current form or team selection. Tested on 64 matches it had not seen, it beats the plain base rate by 23.1%. The last two rows are not forecasts but counts: what actually happened in matches as lopsided as this one.
Most likely exact score
Expected goals: 1.47 – 0.94
- 1–013.2 %
- 1–112.4 %
- 2–09.7 %
- 2–19.1 %
- 0–09.0 %
- 0–18.4 %
The likeliest score is not the expected score: at 13.2%, it means the match ends some other way 86.8% of the time. The expected goals come from 244 comparable matches, then the split is fitted to the win probability beside it — the two cannot contradict each other.
State of the called-up squad
How much of the squad is starting regularly for its club.
in form 14/21 66.7 %
- Starting regularly
- 14 of 21 players that can be judged
- Minutes per club appearance (median)
- 72
- No club data
- 4 of 25 called up
A player counts as starting regularly if he has averaged 60 minutes or more per club appearance, across at least 3 matches. The squad reads as “in form” above 65% and “poor” below 45%. One measure under a printed rule, not a composite index — and it says nothing about injuries, which only the official list reveals.
Latest matches
Open a match for the lineup, the statistics and the timeline.
Did you know?
Facts taken straight from the data — recomputed on every update, never written by hand.
- Two goals down, Burkina Faso has never yet won: 0W-1D-14L in 15 matches since 2022 — 0.07 points per match.
- When the team never falls behind, it barely loses: 26W-11D-0L in 37 matches — 2.41 points per match.
- Of 86 goals conceded since 2022, 62 were never answered in the same match — 72.1%.
- The first goal decides almost everything: 2.39 points per match when scoring first (36 matches), 0.57 when conceding first (28 matches, 4 wins against 20 defeats).
- Burkina Faso scores markedly less in the opening quarter-hour (1–15 minutes) than in the rest of the match — a gap too wide to be chance alone.
- Edmond Tapsoba has played 3,162 international minutes since 2022 — the equivalent of 35.1 full matches.
- Dango Ouattara has scored 11 of the team's 64 goals since 2022 — 17% on his own.
- In 4-3-3: 1.80 points per match. In 4-1-4-1: 0.78. But the opponents were not the same — average Elo 1,580 against 1,712.
- Hosting away from home costs little, but it costs: 1.92 points per match in Burkina Faso, 1.85 across the 46 “home” matches played abroad.
- On Elo, Burkina Faso is 11th in Africa out of 54 nations, and 79th in the world, on 1,646 points.
- Since 1960: 467 matches, 165 wins, 124 draws, 178 defeats — 35.3% won.
Most used
Ranked by international minutes played since January 2022.
Explore
Squad & breakdowns
Who is in the squad, where the Étalons play, how the group is built.
Style of play
Style, timing, resilience, formations and player importance.
All matches
61 matches in detail: lineups, statistics, timelines.
History & Elo
1960 to today: AFCON runs, head coaches, venues, shootouts, Elo.
Projections
AFCON 2027, the youth pipeline, Elo expectations against African rivals.
All players
153 players called up since 2022, each with a full profile.