Étalons Analytics

Methodology

How these numbers are produced

Sources, formulas, thresholds and limits. All of it is reproducible: the code and the intermediate data are public.

How to read these numbers

You do not need to be a statistician. Here is what each measure on the site means — and, more to the point, what it does not.

Points per match

A win is worth 3 points, a draw 1, a defeat 0. Add them up and divide by matches played. 2.43 means a team winning nearly every time; 0.07 a team that almost never manages it.

Per 90 minutes

A substitute who plays 20 minutes cannot be compared with a starter who plays 90. So everything is scaled to a full match: 2 goals in 180 minutes is 1 goal per 90 minutes.

Minutes played

The most honest measure of a head coach's trust. A call-up can be argued about; minutes on the pitch are a choice repeated match after match.

Why a dash instead of a number

Over 4 matches, one lucky game changes everything. When the sample is too small to mean anything we show “–” rather than a number that would mislead.

The Elo rating

A single number placing a team's strength, borrowed from chess. Beating a stronger opponent earns a lot; losing to a weaker one costs a lot. It says where a team stands against the rest, not what it has won.

Possession

The share of the time the team had the ball. On its own it says little: you can dominate the ball and lose. That is why every figure sits beside the same figure for the opponents actually faced.

“Descriptive, not causal”

We can observe that two things go together. We cannot say one causes the other. Little rest looks like the best rest — until you notice those matches were played against the weakest opponents.

Why the count is always shown

“67%” can mean 2 out of 3. The raw count is always shown beside the percentage, so you can judge for yourself what it is worth.

The method in detail

Photo credits

Portraits come from Wikimedia Commons under a free licence. No copyrighted press photography is republished here.

Amir Abdou — Bhmkinder, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Bernard Simondi — Doha Stadium Plus Qatar from Doha, Qatar, CC BY 2.0 (Commons)
Gernot Rohr — Кирилл Венедиктов, CC BY-SA 3.0 (Commons)
Hubert Velud — Mickael Denet, CC BY-SA 3.0 (Commons)
Oscar Fulloné — Badrlhs, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Otto Pfister — 14. Internationale Sportnacht Davos from Davos, Schweiz, CC BY-SA 2.0 (Commons)
Philippe Troussier — Thplam2004, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Abdoul Guiebre — Amir Hossein Yeganeh, CC BY 4.0 (Commons)
Abdoul Tapsoba — Happiraphael, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Adama Guira — Happiraphael, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Adamo Nagalo — Amir Hossein Yeganeh, CC BY 4.0 (Commons)
Arthur Zagré — Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Bertrand Traoré — Effathéophile105, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Blati Touré — Happiraphael, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Cedric Badolo — Fcstmani, CC0 (Commons)
Cyrille Bayala — Supporterhéninois, CC0 (Commons)
Dango Ouattara — Timmy96, CC0 (Commons)
Dramane Salou — FC Olympic Donetsk, CC BY 3.0 (Commons)
Edmond Tapsoba — Pyaet, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Georgi Minoungou — SounderBruce, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Gustavo Sangaré — Happiraphael, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Hervé Koffi — Happiraphael, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Hillel Konaté — Supporterhéninois, CC0 (Commons)
Issa Kaboré — ESTAC Troyes, CC BY 3.0 (Commons)
Issoufou Dayo — Happiraphael, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Lassina Traoré — Mykola Tys, CC BY 4.0 (Commons)
Mamady Bangré — Gaillac, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Nasser Djiga — Fexedyte, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Ousseni Bouda — ECTran71, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Patrick Malo — Happiraphael, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Steeve Yago — Effathéophile105, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Commons)
Stephane Aziz Ki — Amir Hossein Yeganeh, CC BY 4.0 (Commons)